Enchant Scroll Speculation
In my For the Hoard! post, I warned against following WoW investment advice given by persons with longer time horizons than you. That warning is still in effect, but…
…this is getting a little ridiculous.
Chances are good that if you have an Enchanter, you already knew that your Enchanting peers were dumping scrolls on the market with complete abandon. You would probably even be (somewhat justifiably) upset with this situation, since it destroys any semblance of a market. Well, any semblance of a Seller’s Market. After all, if you stumbled upon people flooding the AH with items not only below their (probable) market price, but also below their True Vendor Price (e.g. the cost of mats to craft them), you would buy them all and relist them all day, yes?
Some of those listings border on the criminally insane. Enchant Shield – Blocking takes twelve (12) Hypnotic Dust to make and someone listed four (4) of them at 2.95g each. Is the average price of Hypnotic Dust 24s on your server? It fluctuates between 12g and 18g per pinch o’ dust on mine, although you probably wouldn’t know that based on the above picture. That scroll of Blocking should be at 144g minimum just to break even, but someone felt selling at a 141g loss was better than… just holding onto the scrolls for later?
Fundamentally, that is what enchant scroll speculation is asking you to do: purchase these uber-cheap scrolls and hold onto them for weeks/months until the supply of leveling-Enchanters dries up and the market returns to some semblance of normality. Just like any sort of speculation, there are risks involved… although the risk of buying 3g scrolls is pretty small. The problem starts creeping up once you eliminate the uber-cheap and start working your way up to the, say, 33g-100g scrolls that cost 200g in mats. It is a problem, that is, unless you follow my 2nd Commandment of Investing:
Never invest in something you would/could not end up using.
I bought all of the sub-50g enchanting scrolls listed in the pictures above, and have been stockpiling anything below 20g automatically. I do this without worrying about whether the market will ever recover because A) it probably will recover at some point, but more importantly B) because I can use these myself, or my guild can in any case. In fact, the guild bank has roughly 200 scrolls of various flavors such that any Strength-based DPS will be covered whenever they get a glove upgrade until the end of the expansion. There might be a small issue with the +35 Strength to gloves enchant, actually, considering it is not BiS: Mighty Strength is actually BiS, although it takes two Maelstrom Crystals that are north of 800g apiece at the moment. Nevertheless, I can carry a few in my bags whenever we raid and have something cheap, but effective on-hand so that we aren’t wasting time if that guy wants something on his shiny-new drop.
You may think this is a lot of words compared the the easier “Yes, buy cheap scrolls” response. And you would be correct. Be that as it may, I do still feel very strongly that what is a no-brainer for someone with a long-time horizon is bad advice for someone with a more immediate one. Enchanting scrolls are speculations, not investments, and there is no vendor alternative (e.g. selling cut gems from Obsidium) should the market lurch into a bad direction as you are cashing out. So stay smart and stay safe by speculating on things you could see yourself using anyway.