Yearly Archives: 2011
Specialize in Diversity
If there is ever a question between whether you should specialize or diversify in a particular market or just in general, the correct answer is to specialize in diversity. A lot of AH advice is sort of wishy-washy “do what feels right for you” but this is one of the big, unequivocal no-brainers. Diversify, branch out, get your thumbs in as many pies as you can.
Only have two thumbs? Not a problem! Nobody wants to eat a piece of pie that has had a stranger’s thumb in it*, especially if that thumb is already dirty from being stuck in other pies.
Think for a moment about markets that really require specialization. Like… uhh… yeah, exactly. Glyphs would be an actual example of “requiring” specialization, and a perfect example why you shouldn’t be doing that. If you set up three bots alts and a cascade of addons and automate milling/crafting/posting/mail-collecting, you can make a lot of gold every day. Unless there is someone else doing it, out-botting-addon-ing you, while a couple of bozos are randomly tossing up high-priced glyphs at 80% or less of their current going rate. Will you still make a lot of money overall? Yeah, maybe. But I can probably make 50% of your profits with only 10% of the effort, while actually deriving enjoyment from the pie-thumbing in addition to the successful auction thrill.
When I talk about “specialization,” I am not talking about “leveling that profession.” Some people may consider Jewelcrafting to require specialization, for example, as if you have not hit 475 JC and been doing the JC dailies everyday for the last three months then you would be way behind the JCs who have “specialized.” You will have less cuts, sure. But your Bold Inferno Ruby will be just as valuable as anyone else’s Bold Inferno Ruby. Expanding your selection is not what I would term specialization, and it seems a bit silly even typing that out. To me, specialization is focusing on 1-2 markets to the exclusion of all others.
My question: if there is low-hanging fruit two steps to your left, why climb the coconut tree?
All that said, there is a finite level of mental bandwidth a person can devote to pie-thumbing, not to mix metaphors. You can over-extend yourself and it will lead to burnout. Diversifying is not about being everywhere, but rather about being ABLE to be anywhere. Imagine waging a guerilla war against the AH and you can kinda get the idea – get into a market, get paid, and get out when the heat turns up. Sure, it is not as glamorus as being a Captain of Industry or cornering a market. But if that is what you are after, you may need to come to the realization that getting paid is no longer your primary goal anymore.
Here is my routine:
- Log onto Alch/JC, do JC daily, collect mail, browse AH prices of herbs and ore. If herbs are cheap, make flasks. If ore is cheap, prospect and cut.
- Log onto Enchanter/JC, do JC daily. Check recipe, dust, essence, shard prices. If enchanting mats are high, sell enchanting mats. If enchant mats are low, check scroll prices. If scroll prices are low, log out.
- Log onto Scribe. Check Inferno Ink and Darkmoon card prices. If herbs and Life are cheap, make cards. If Ink is high, sell Ink. If cards are low, buy cards. Log out.
- If prices have been all wrong, log onto Tailor/Leatherworker, check prices of leg enchants, make/post, log out.
The fundamental argument against specialization is that it is entirely possible your market could simply tank and you would be left with a basket full of broken eggs. Meanwhile, my market spread generally cushions me from bad news unless everyone is having bad news. In which case, it’s not really bad news anymore, is it?
So, basically, diversify. It is safer, (generally) easier, and probably just as lucrative as specializing.
*Unless it’s Thumb Pie, in which case that is the point.
OT: Four Point What
Patch 4.1 is hitting the PTR Soon™ and in the midst of flurry of blog posts about it, let me be the first to say: ZA & ZG what?
We had gotten hints at the beginning of Cataclysm that ZG/ZA might have merely been a setback with all the chatter about the Tome of Polymorph: Turtle and the vague gesticulations concerning the ZG mounts. The literal revelation that these are coming back though leaves me a bit floored. To a certian extent you expect a bit of redundancy within MMOs, for several reasons. For example, can you imagine 120 different Fire Elemental models? It would be absurd, a huge drain not only on development time but also taxing on players’ mental bandwidth. The other reason why you should expect redundancy within an MMO is simply because of player churn. For however X number of players remember going through ZG and ZA back in the day, there are Y players who never did… making the content new to them. If recycling content gives the designers space to make all-new content, that is an acceptable trade-off.
That said, it remains to be seen whether we will be, in fact, getting gameplay returns for developer recycling or if Blizzard is simply repackaging our shampoo into a “new and improved” 9 oz bottle (down from 12 oz) while charging the same $15. Revamped Onyxia was better than no Onyxia in Tier 9 content, unless we could have had Completely New Boss X instead. Blizzard promised Throne of Tides – Abyssal Maw in 4.1 though, so unless that makes it Live in addition to the other two, it is conceviable Blizzard is peddling some Adjustable Rate Mortgages our way.
Ultimately, the above kind of gut reactions miss the PVSAH mark. The only relevant aspect is: are these heroics/boss fights fun? If Blizzard makes them fun, what does it matter if in patch 4.2 we see 5-man Karazhan (hopefully with Chess Event and the legions Malchezaar commands intact) or even the ultimate slap-in-the-face Magister’s Terrace revamp? Fun is fun. And while that may seem like a tautological cop-out, at the end of the day it is the only thing that really matters.
Edit: I wrote the above a few days ago when the changes had just been revealed. Since then, my feelings have shifted more towards Acceptance. The Deadmines revamp was essentially an entirely new, innovative instance wrapped in nostalgia packaging. The same could sortabe said about Shadowfang Keep, but I hate the place honestly. I don’t like running Deadmines either – both still take even a guild group close to an hour to finish – but if the ZA & ZG heroics turn out like Deadmines from an innovation standpoint, it’s win-win for everyone.
That Which Has No Life
The other day I noticed I was undercut on cut gems within approximately 30 seconds of posting. Could be a coincidence, right? At the time I was talking within guild about The Undermine Journal and the voyeuristic possibilities (“Hey, your sister posts auctions only between 7pm and 11pm Wed/Thur/Fri/Sat”), so I decided to go ahead and eyeball my competition:
Err… WTF?
I actually knew about this guy for a while, as he is “that guy” on my server who has 3+ different toons with slightly different spellings who runs a Glyph racket. This particular specimen is in the blood diamond gem market and appears to be ran by a bot – even if he was unemployed, there simply is no way that he would be posting ~40 auctions every hour on the hour, seven days a week.
The question becomes: short of acquiring the Sword of A Thousand Truths, how does one compete with this?
Answer: the only winning move is not to play.
More specifically, what you do not do is play the game on someone else’s terms, especially if they are bad terms. Is it possible to combat this seller? Sure. There is a lot of different things you can do to try and counteract addon automation and/or botting behavior. For example, most of these programs/addons have threshold limits you can probe with trial and error – other gold blogs have detailed this specific gambit, in divining a competitor’s threshold and then “tricking” him into posting a bunch of stock at that price, then buying him out and relisting.
My issue is that fighting someone with a competitive advantage is almost never worth it in the long-term. This does not mean you have to give up making any gold in a particular market, it just means you have to start thinking in shorter terms. This guy undercut my five auctions of 275g Timeless Demonseyes with his own three auctions at 274g 99s 90c within one minute of my posting them. I don’t believe this market is deep enough to sell four of them in a given day* so I am left with the dilemma of whether to just leave them up or cancel and repost. What I ended up doing was canceling and reposting them for 225g each. As I talked about in my Foundation article on undercutting, one of the (emotional) advantages of the savage undercut is the fact that even if your competition continues undercutting you, in very real terms you have taken gold out of their bags. In this case, if the bot cancels and reposts, he loses his own deposit fee (which matches mine) + 50g per gem. That 50g doesn’t go into my pocket of course, but by driving down the profit margin I potentially discourage the bot while also reducing my own desire to even be in this particular market.
There is a tendency to look at the Auction House game as being Player Vs Player. In some respects, it certainly can be. As the title of the blog suggests though, I consider it simply to be Player Vs Auction House. Part of that philosophy is to not shoot for Pyrrhic Victories when I am just here to make some gold. If someone wants to be an AH hero, the floor is all yours – I will quietly exit an overextended market and find the lower-hanging fruit elsewhere or start exploring un(der)developed ones.
I am curious as to what other peoples’ gut reactions are though. If you noticed someone like Harry Botter** muscling into a market like this, what would be your response, if any? Would you try to undermine him? Fight fire with fire? Mosey out of town? Go to the mattresses? Let me know in the comments below.
*The first question that should pop into your head after you read that is “Hey, if you don’t think the market is deep enough for 4 Timeless gem sales, why would you post 5 of them?” I wish I could respond with “It was a test to see if you were paying attention” but it was honestly more a combination of oversight and laziness. Or possibly optimism.
**It occurs to me that I might be reading TUJ’s “heat map” wrong and/or having an overly broad definition of botting. My guildie and I figured out that canceling auctions registers as “sold auctions” on TUJ, for example.
Rare Spawn Profits
Did a bit of raiding the other day and ended up having to switch out of my usual MT role into Ret DPS for the Double Dragons. As it turns out, my Ret gear was pretty abysmal with some imminently embarrassing greens. After being shown why Theralion is his mother’s favorite child, I started going through AtlasLoot and Wowhead for possible upgrades. One particular weakness I wanted to stamp out was plate bracers – ilevel 318 greens seemed pretty bad. Doing some Wowhead database magic resulted in this list, which basically indicated I would be stuck in 318 greens unless I did Halls of Origination (yuck) or BRC on heroic. Or bought a pair of BoE bracers off the AH that dropped from a rare-spawn with a ~8-15 hour respawn timer.
Wait, what?
Terborus’s Rotating Bands is a BoE 346 blue wrist that drops off a rare spawn in Deepholm 100% of the time. It is more or less identical to another blue wrist that drops in heroic HoO, and the two of them are essentially pre-raid best-in-slot for both plate tanking and DPS. At the time I discovered this, there was one pair on the AH going for 3100g, but The Undermine Journal indicated that this was somewhat of a low-ball estimate across most other servers. Being the miserly auctioneer that I am though, I decided to finish up some Therazine quests on an alt while keeping an eye out of Terborus myself. About an hour later, the big yellow worm was dead and I looted the equivalent of several thousand gold.
As you know, I usually do not advocate straight up farming or camping rare spawns – in most cases you can leverage the Transitive Property to farm something worth more, and just buy what it was you needed to buy. That said, if you happen to be in the following areas, I recommend stopping by to case the place:
- Stonecore – Terborus – Terborus’s Rotating Bands
- Twilight Highlands – Tarvus the Vile – Tarvus’s Poison-Scarred Boots
- Twilight Highlands – Overlord Sunderfury – Sunderfury’s Sundries
- Vashj’ir – Shok’sharak – Sussurating Treads of Shok’sharak
- Hyjal – Blazewing – Blazewing’s Furious Kilt
Clicking on the mob name will take you to Wowhead’s maps with their exact location(s). There are some other rare spawns out there, but only the above ones drop 346 BoE gear. Anecdotally, any one of those items should fetch 2000g minimum.
Art of Haggle: Haggler
Last time we talked about getting haggled. Now let’s look at doing some haggling.
Fundamentally, haggling is a tug-of-war battle between two people with imperfect information. As the seller, you do not know how much the buyer is willing to pay – as the buyer, you do not know how low the seller is willing to go. Even if the buyer/seller tells you exactly how much they are willing to accept, there is no real way for you to know if they are telling the truth or whether it is merely a gambit on their part. In fact, it’s entirely possible that the buyer/seller does not even know the truth of their own statement.
Within World of Warcraft however, there is one piece of information you do know when it comes to people selling items through Trade Chat: they are desperate.
“But… Azuriel! I/my friend/some dude sells things over Trade all the time and isn’t desperate at all!”
“You/your friend/that guy is merely a good haggler and/or enjoys it.”
Think about the market for your item, say, a Volcano deck. Who would buy it? You might have raiders, you might have PvPers, you might have alts with sugar-daddy mains, you might have just some random guy just hitting the level cap. Your market would include people specifically looking for that deck, and it could also potentially include people who were not specifically looking for the deck, but just happened to stumble upon it and thought it would be good for them. Depending on the price you ask for the deck, you might also create demand for it from goblins willing to assume the risk of flipping it.
Who is excluded from your market? People whom have been priced out of the demand curve of your deck. You also exclude people who never knew you were selling the deck to begin with.
All of the above assumes you listed the card in the AH. Why? Because by selling it solely in Trade chat, you exclude another group of potential buyers: everyone not currently in Trade chat. Think about that. You could have raiders and PvPers fawning over your item and willing to pay through the teeth… but they are currently in a raid/Arena, and not around to even know you are selling. Or, hell, they could merely be out doing dailies or questing on an alt. Or AFK.
So your entire market is solely the people currently in Trade chat. No reasonable person would pay more for an item from Trade that he/she could buy from the AH for less. In fact, everyone instinctively accepts that AH prices have a “premium” built-in for the convenience of being able to buy at one’s leisure, which means they instinctively know the opposite to be true, e.g. things are cheaper in Trade chat. Any seller that consciously chooses to handcuff themselves by selling in Trade, almost by definition, is either desperate or willing to limit their profits to push product now rather than later. I would call the latter “desperation” anyway.
I typed all the conceptual framework above as a preface to this otherwise simplistic suggestion: low-ball the hell out of them. Keep it in the realm of possibility, but low-ball it.
Let me give you a literally true example that occurred just two days after my Volcano hagglee experience, and is the height of irony. For one thing, I was on my Inscription toon reposting unsold Darkmoon decks when, lo and behold, someone came on Trade wanting to sell a Volcano deck for 16,000g. I whispered them with an offer for 12,000g. Why 12k? What I wanted to do was provide a tantalizing floor at which someone might end up going “screw it” and selling it at. If I had made a truly absurd offer like 8000g or less, they would dismiss it out of hand as a troll, just like anyone in Trade chat offering 1g for it. Personally, 12k is pretty ridiculous by itself for a Darkmoon deck worth 16,000g in Inferno Inks, but if someone wants to pay the reverse-premium of a guaranteed sale right now, let’em.
I did not actually get a response right away from the seller. I saw him barking it up a few more times, and I whispered “I’m still willing to buy at 12,000g.” He came back with a “Well, 12k is kind of low. I’m splitting it with another guy.” Remember when I said I was a big softie? Yeah, well, it comes and goes. There is no way for me to know whether he is serious or just cynically playing the heart-strings, so my default bargaining state of not believing anything they say kicked in. “I’ll buy at 12,000g if you end up changing your mind.” This is my signature haggling move, the Artful Disengage, in which I indicate “this is my deal, take it or leave it” without actually achieving that aggressive posture. Sure enough, the guy went back to Trade with “WTS Volcano deck, have 12k offer. If you want it, offer has to be 13k.” Interesting gambit on this guy’s part and it almost inclined me to offer 13k just to seal the deal.
Remember from last time when I mentioned that my internal bargaining position would be weaker if I was selling something I could not actually use/have a use for? It also works in reverse: I already had an unsold Volcano deck, so it was not as though I was emotionally invested in this transaction outside of the gold-making possibilities. I use the Artful Disengage no matter my level of personal involvement, but this time I actually meant the “take it or leave it.” After another 5-10 minutes of waiting, the seller took it. I met him outside the Dwarven District AH, traded the 12,000g, and then I immediately walked 15 yards to the auctioneer and listed the deck for 21,000g, the same price as my other Volcano deck.
After logging on the next day, I discovered someone had bought one of the decks for 21,000g. That is a profit margin of over 8,000g. You can be damn sure that the buyer was NOT someone in Trade chat the night before.
- When you see someone selling on Trade, try to establish a floor for them. The “floor” in this case is a bid high enough to make them think twice about *not* selling it to anyone, while low enough for you to have room to maneuver should they drive a harder bargain. If you read my Hagglee post, you should now see why I had you establish a floor for yourself, lest someone else try to do it for you.
- If you find yourself bad at haggling, you will ironically be more successful the less important the transaction actually is to you.
- Usually goes without saying, but being aware of the market price for the item in question is important, especially when the seller is giving away no information (other than their inherent desperation), such as when they just say “WTS X, pst” or “make an offer.” The seller is secretly hoping that you, the buyer, will make an offer higher than their expectations. If the seller wants 50g for the item, they hope you offer 60g and think you are getting a bargain.
That about sums it all up for haggling. I could possibly squeeze in another entry focusing on the Volcano deck, considering how much mileage I have gotten out of it already. I jest, I jest. The trinket just so happens to be a fairly interesting case-study given the profit potential of all the steps leading up to making it, and the (reproducible) profit from the discrete object itself. Not everyone deals with Darkmoon cards though, so I will try to find more generalized examples next time.
Art of Haggle: the Hagglee
Last night, as I was collecting the spoils of sold Darkmoon cards, I noticed an established raider saying in Trade chat “WTB Darkmoon Card: Volcano.” The first thing I did was head to the AH to check if I had been undercut on my own Volcano deck. Seeing that I was the only seller up, I quickly canceled my current auction with it’s 18500g buyout and relisted for 22000g. Smiling to myself on a job well done, I prepared to check in on my other alts. Before I could log though, I got the whisper.
…the dreaded, dread whisper.
I am going to let you in on a dark secret: I am terrible at haggling. Brutal, cut-throat AH PvP? Does not phase me a bit. My exorbitant prices leave poverty and destitution in its wake? Don’t care. I mean, hell, I smelled blood in Trade chat waters and ate the 6g deposit fee to jack up my Volcano price by 3500g (nearly 20%) to capitalize on the potential desperation. Part of that comes from my over-arching philosophy that is summarized by the title of this blog, e.g. player versus auction house. I am playing against the AH, not the individuals that make up the AH. When I repost, undercut, or engage in social engineering for my personal benefit, I do so in Solipsism Mode – treating the game as single-player with AI bots that clearly (okay, mostly) pass the Turing Test.
This is a self-defense mechanism as, generally speaking, I am a big softie that is receptive to social guilt. I don’t succumb to the “total chump” level of eating a loss, but I’ll feel bad about it later… and later still will be angry at myself for not drawing a harder line.
Lucky for me, the raider short-circuited any possible guilt mechanisms by going straight for the “Okay, bottom line, what’s the lowest you would be willing to go?” line. For future reference in any haggling you do, that is a bad opening gambit. Insulting, even. If you don’t want to haggle, buy it off the AH at the premium my time and your convenience demands. “Did you have any Waves cards to trade?” I asked the question because in Trade he specified he would be willing to swap decks. As it turns out, he only had the Hurricane deck, of which I had three unsold sitting up on the AH already. The Tsunami deck is a slam-dunk for every type of healer, but I was missing the A, 2, 6, 7, and 8 of the deck. “Which ones do you need?” I specify the five missing cards, having already looked at their prices on the AH and noting that the 6, 7, and 8 alone add up to ~15,000g (with obviously no competition). “If you don’t have Waves cards to trade, lowest price is 17,000g.” My prior Volcano posting was 18,500g which meant the bid was ~14,800g before I canceled it. At 22,000g buyout, the bid floor is now 17,600g. Selling at 17kg is 2125g per card; assuming 7g for Volatile Life, that means 191.5g per Inferno Ink, 19.15g for Blackfallow, and any stack of herbs below 153g that mills into three Blackfallow and half an Inferno would be profitable.
No, I did not actually calculate all that at the time.
Looking back, a successful 17,600g bid would end up giving me 16,720g assuming a 5% AH cut, so I could have offered less than 17kg and came out ahead. Then again, I would prefer the full 22,000g or, you know, as much as humanly possible. The haggling ended in a draw with no exchange taking place other than me telling him the name of my main in case he changed his mind. I anticipate him doing exactly that, insofar as saying “screw it” and buying my auction straight-up or finding a different seller altogether. Even in a nightmare scenario in which I never ever find a buyer at any price, the Volcano trinket is still extraordinarily powerful for Elemental shaman and warlocks generally (among others), both of which I have. Had this been an item I could not ever possibly have an interest in, say Crimson Deathcharger or epic spellcasting leather or something, my (internal) bargaining position would have been weaker.
You might wonder why I would bring up this topic at all given my lack of ability/confidence in this position. Well… obviously to get better at it. Everyone has to start somewhere, eh? If I were to distill all the above into bite-size, homework-esque bullet-points, it would look something like this:
- If you are bad/nervous/unconfident at haggling, acknowledge it. To yourself, not the other guy.
- You don’t actually have to haggle. The reason why you might want to is that theoretically the haggler is a guaranteed sale within a certain price range. It just comes down to finding the perimeter of their price range and seeing if it overlaps your selling range. Speaking of that…
- Figure out your selling range. Start at the top, which is the lowest price of any competing products. If there is no competition, the sky’s the limit, although you may want to cap it at the highest price you reasonably believe it could go for on the AH. The bottom level of your selling range should be whatever price you believe the item would sell for instantly on the AH. Alternatively, you could choose the current or historical price of materials, whichever is higher, plus 10%. You are not running a non-profit here, so unless you can repair your gear with the warm fuzzies you get from charity work, make sure to get paid for your time. Once you have both ranges, ignore the low one and offer AH price -10%. You figured out the low-end price just in case the haggler came back with a lower counter-offer.
- Information is everything. If the buyer is desperate, that gives you information, namely that he/she will probably go higher than normal. Same thing works in reverse. Have you seen people in Trade say “WTS X, 1000g or best offer, pst”? That’s dumb, no one is going to offer them 1000g straight-up after an opening like that. Why not? Because the seller gave away the information that they will accept less than their original target.
Next time, I will go over the other side of the coin: being the haggler.
OT: LFD and Difficulty
OT = Off-topic, e.g. no AH advice.
Chances are good that you have at some point been exposed to the debate still consuming the WoW forums in regards to the recent nerfs to heroic difficulty, the buff to Luck of the Draw, and the overall “Wrathification” of Cataclysm. The arguments are pretty rote by this time, usually coming down to “morons/bads should L2P and not have faceroll epixs” and “back in my day we wiped and liked it” and possibly “the elitist no-lifers just want exclusive content for themselves” or “my $15/month is just as valuable as your $15/month.”
All of that kind of debate is besides the point.
The point is two-fold: the DPS queue for heroics is north of 45 minutes and the completion rate of LFD groups was garbage. Period.
LFD is Here to Stay
It is interesting from a philosophical point to debate the whys and the hows, but again, it would be besides the point. The LFD genie is out of the bottle, and it is never going back. That said, LFD as a tool requires a healthy feedback loop in order to function. Players like Gevlon from Greedy Goblin might refuse to use LFD under any circumstances, even if that meant he simply was never able to do another heroic again. I would imagine that everyone else would be more reasonable insofar as they would prefer grouping with friends, but if they could just grab someone to fill the empty slot(s) they would. Sometimes only three people you know are online, or perhaps only three out of X many are willing to go. Other times you may literally be the only person online for whatever reason and want to run a heroic. In those situations, you will want the system to be there.
LFD in this sense is like public transportation. You may never actually need to use it, and you may certainly never want to, but it is still in your best interests for it to be there in case you do.
That all changes if the average completion rate of LFD pugs is 40% after having waiting for nearly an hour. Most sensible people would not bother with that, and instead take their chances with Trade chat pugs, waiting for guildies to become available, or simply going and doing something else entirely. The people who would still queue for such a LFD failure would be the terminally optimistic and those for whom a 40% chance of success after an hour of waiting is more than they achieve on average anyway. This means that when you end up needing to use LFD to avoid not being able to do what you want to do, you are far more likely to not end up being able to do what you wanted to do anyway and wasted your time besides.
What Does Not Wipe You, Makes You… Err…
Were the Cataclysm heroics too hard? Would the “difficulty” have solved itself once tier-gear was available for Justice Points in 4.1 and beyond? Is having players struggle through difficult content better for them and the game overall? Interesting questions… but irrelevant to the issue of the negative feedback loop the LFD tool was stuck on.
Success breeds success. There are highly successful people IRL who say that success is the worst teacher, that adversity and frustration are better motivators. Sure… sorta. I am not opposed to difficult content – fundamentally I believe everyone who plays wants content tailored to their skill level – what I am opposed to is the notion that a LFD system could survive the same design philosophy used in, say, raiding. If your first few forays into eBay or Craigslist ended up in scams, frauds and embarassment, how likely would it be that enough people would trooper on in the face of such adversity to make those marketplaces function on a healthy level? Even on a raiding level, success breeds success. How long would Gevlon’s experiement have lasted if endlessly wiped on Magmaw and saw no improvement from week to week?
Does the 15% LFD buff and targeted boss nerfs make people better players? Not necessarily at first. What those things do accomplish is increase the completion rate of LFD dungeon groups as a whole, which then encourages more people to use the tool, which improves the aggregate skill level of groups, which further increases the completion rates. I truly do believe that a smoothly functioning LFD tool encourages individual improvement in the people receptive to the idea to begin with, as they get a foundation of success that translates into confidence, plus the gear that takes raiding into the realm of possibility. Just think of how many potential raiders could be buried under the fail of current LFD groups, never knowing how much better they could become because any improvements they do accomplish does not translate into meaningful group success.
Collateral Damage
The final thing I wanted to briefly talk about is the following argument:
“This sort of thing is exactly WHY the 15% was bought in.
Are you saying we should all fail just because some of the peeps were scrubs?”
“No they should not reward poor play. Groups should fail sometimes people should learn mechanics. The issue is they put the bar on the floor for wrath.”
One of the root design questions of LFD is: should good players be penalized for getting randomly grouped with bad players?
There is no way to avoid rewarding poor play without also penalizing good play in the process (unless all five players are bad). Such a philosophical hardline is the same concept as the teacher punishing the entire class because no one came forward to say who threw the spitball or whatever. The idea is that by holding the entire class hostage, one can guilt either the perpetrator or someone who knows who the perp is into confessing. Based on personal anecdotes, such a gambit works approximately 0% of the time – someone with no compunction against being disruptive in class in the first place isn’t likely to be persuaded by guilt (even if they are, they are getting punished either way, so no-win), the people who knew who did it likely don’t want to be labeled as snitches and otherwise suffer retaliation later (no-win), and the rest of the class that would tell who did it if they knew are punished as though they did it themselves (no-win). Such blind, indiscriminate punishment does not actually encourage any good behavior whatsoever; the only real thing it encourages is either acting out yourself (may as well have fun if you suffer the consequences either way) or an avoidance of that class/teacher, which represents the LFD tool in this case.
Is it “fair” that bad players get carried? Maybe not. Then again, I’d say the downside of being bad is being bad. If someone is so conceited and ignorant that they are unable to recognize their own terribleness, they are not likely to learn anything from the group being wiped either. Meanwhile, I do not think anyone believe it fair that otherwise good players get punished for something they had no hand in doing.
[Should good players be penalized because of bad players?] In a word? Yes.
Because the flip side of the question is, “Should a player be guaranteed a successful run no matter what the other 4 people in the group do?” And the answer to that is, “No.”
A good point, but presumably the line does not exist at such an extreme. Should two good players be punished because three bads happen to be in the group? How about three good, two bad? Four good, one bad? And what about when the the binary distinctions are dropped, and we start adding “above average” “average,” and “below average,” to the mix?
Ultimately, I believe the changes which Blizzard did were amazingly nuanced. The targeted nerfs are nerfs, of course. But full guild groups looking for challenge can avoid the 10% portion of the buff by doing what they always did anyway: run heroics as groups. And if they ever need a 4th or 5th member to round out the run? At least they will not have their run torpedoed by a kid shooting spitballs.
Cataclysm Thus Far
Based on some of my prior posts, I would probably have to describe myself as a Fairweather Auctioneer. Based on my realm’s markets thus far in Cataclysm, I would probably describe it as containing fair weather. A visual aid:
In short: 137,811g over 71 days or just shy of 2.5 months, averaging 1,941g a day.
Tragically, I only downloaded MySales in the past few weeks so I don’t have as much hard data as I would have enjoyed browsing. Generally speaking though, I do not pool the gold across my various toons as you can see; by keeping it separated, it gives me a way of judging how profitable and/or self-sustaining certain individual professions can be.
In essence, this is a personalized recap episode for my time versus the Auchindoun auction house thus far. Feel free to keep right on browsing if these aren’t your thing, although I would like to think I can make it somewhat entertaining for the both of us.
Inscription
The clear darling child of this expansion thus far, just as the expansion before it, is Inscription. As various blogging man-machines can attest to, selling your soul to the gods of addon automation can net you practically limitless amounts of wealth by the ancient rite of Glyph-making. Being the hopeless conscientious objector I am, I have made zero glyphs for sale. Fortunately, there are other ways to squeeze blood from the Inscription rock and the 60,000g made in the last two months (nearly half of it all) atests to this. At the time of writing, the Faire is currently making it’s rounds and I have a Volcano and three Hurricane decks still at large.
Nearly every stage of the Darkmoon card creation stage has space for profit, from milling and selling the Inks up to the individual cards and finished trinkets. If you haven’t explored the potential yet, you are missing out.
Jewelcrafting
The first heady days of an expansion presents many opportunities to corner the market on certain cuts, while also giving those with less predatory inclinations to simply turn the JC daily into a 300-500g payout by selling the special JC gem (e.g. Chimera Eye). While I have been getting my hands dirty, I actually prefer the mature JC market to Wild West one it is presently. As you can see on most realms right now, gem prices are getting tanked hardcore by a truly prodigenious turnout. Six months or more from now, things tend to quiet down, and cuts that are selling for less than the gem it takes to make it will start heading back up to sustainable levels.
What I do want to say is that the color shuffling and stat consolidation has really invalidated entire gem types. There is no practical use for Amberjewels, for example – DPS is in every circumstance going to want a hybrid +Int/+X or similar cut, whereas pure +Crit was a decent seller throughout Wrath (nevermind the +Hit). Straight blue gems needed the boost of +Hit to feel useful, but I am pessimistic about the future of Amberjewel in general.
Alchemy
Outside of Transmutation, there really has not been any Alchemy this expansion thus far. Flasks have been a complete disaster on Blizzard’s part in every respect – it is difficult to imagine that the designers have any idea whatsoever what the hell they are doing when they expected guilds to have created ten thousand (10,000) flasks for a 10m guild within two months (e.g. hitting the level 10 guild perk that buffs only guild cauldrons). And that is putting aside for the moment the absolute re-goddamn-diculous material cost of the flasks themselves. Twelve (12) different herbs of two different types for one flask? Frost Lotus was the limiting factor for Wrath flasks, of course, but what people often forget in that comparison is that the recipe ended up making two flasks. Yeah, originally they made one flask before they were changed, but that one flask lasted two hours. Over the course of the last few years we have gone from a two-hour flask, to two one-hour flasks, to a single one-hour flask while materials necessary to farm has increased. Patch 4.0.6 cannot come fast enough.
Potions have largely been a joke as well, mainly due to the throttling of herbs. It simply makes no sense even as a Potion Master to crank out normal potions when you could be selling those, say, 2-3 Heartblossom at 14-15g each. Potion of Treasure Finding is garbage, and Potion of Illusion needs to last 30 minutes at least. Hopefully the unnerfing of Heartblossom and Whiptail will allows those potions more room for a margin.
Transmutations though? Obscene. Truegold can be hit or miss, but a controlled Living Elements is genius, even if it is almost always more profitable to go from Life –> Air. Rare gem transmutes without a cooldown also opens interesting new market correlations, or at least they would, if herb nodes weren’t so heavily nerfed. If Heartblossom comes down far enough, we may see the prices of Carnelians spike since they may actually become more widely used in Transmute: Inferno Ruby.
Enchanting
As par for the course, Enchanting right now is really hit-or-miss. If you were one of the lucky bastards with the otherwise obtuse Alchemy/Enchanting combo, you are probably logging into WoW from your retirement estate in the Hamptons via the very-late hotfixed Maelstrom Crystal farming. Enchanting materials are still selling rather well, but the scroll market is still groping for the bottom of the hole they are falling into. By the time it rebounds, who knows whether it will bounce higher than the price of Hypnotic Dust and Celestial Essences? Like the JC market though, the more mature the market, the easier it is to find the margins.
Blacksmithing
I do not think it has ever been a better time to be a Blacksmith. Assuming, that is, you are level 84+ and have been soaking up Chaos Orbs. My own Blacksmith is stuck at level 80 as the fourth alt in line for some TLC, but I have still made ~10,000g or so from selling the level 81 rare weapons and some missing pieces of the crafted tanking and Redsteel set.
Mining/Herbalism/Skinning
I am trying to remember back to TBC and Wrath if there was a better time to be a gatherer than presently. I don’t think there has been a better time, unless you count being a Herbalist with an extended Freya-room ID. By the end of Wrath, we saw herbs like Adder’s Tongue down below 16g a stack, but even though the number of bot farmers seem to have increased since then, I think the Inscription changes have stabilized that market. Even low-balling the ore markets still means between 12-27g per node depending on the type, which ain’t bad. I cannot comment much on Skinning other than note it’s volatility, which is par for the course.
Tailoring/Leatherworking
Unfortunately, I cannot comment much on these two otherwise disparate professions because they currently share the same fate as Blacksmithing: trapped on non-level-84 alts. Indeed, my Leatherworker is on a level 75 hunter I never plan on leveling, so I got particularly screwed on that account. Well, not entirely just yet. The reason is that both my Leatherworker and my level 80 Tailor can make the rare leg enchants, which is a market you do not want to be neglecting. I can occasionally be the only seller of Twilight Leg Armor for example, and can push the ~90g-in-mats item into a very healthy 350g range considering the raid-worthy Charscale Leg Armor takes a Pristine Hide trading north of 500g by itself, not counting the 20 Volatile Fires.
Similarly, don’t forget about the deceptively deep Ghostly Spellthread market. After all, +Spirit is amazing for healers and some hybrid DPS classes like Elemental shaman who basically get free +Hit out of the bargain (as opposed to +Stamina from the other spellthread).
In any case, this has ran on particularly long, so thanks for slogging through it with me. Here is for hoping for continued success in 4.0.6 and beyond, one and all.
4.0.6 Primer
MMO-Champion is reporting that 4.0.6 will be dropping on Tuesday, and I tend to believe them.
There have been a lot of posts around the blog world after each PTR build, but some of those have been weeks (or months) ago, and it becomes pretty easy to lose track of the changes that should pique your interest. What follows are the top three things I think are important to keep in mind in the days before the patch.
- New BoE patterns. Three new JC metagem random world drop recipes, all of which are going to be unbelievably hot commodities for the rest of Cataclysm – Wowhead is showing that they are +54 Agility/Strength/Intellect with the +3% crit damage, making them strictly better than the Chaotic meta, in every possible way. So stop making Chaotic cuts immediately, and you may want to consider dumping your remaining stock as well. It may be a while before the new metas saturate the market, but you don’t want to be left holding bag either.
Enchanters are getting three new +50 Agility/Strength/Intellect wrist enchanting patterns, which are also BoE world drops. The demand for the patterns themselves will probably be high, but since all three require two Maelstrom Crystals to enchant, I would not expect high demand until after 4.1 (when I expect the new 5m to drop epics on heroic).
- Expect a surge in herb/Volatile Life prices. The number of herbs needed to make flasks will be reduced by approximately 33% across the board (8 of two kinds instead of 12). This reduction in mats should correspond in a surge of demand because now A) making flasks is closer to being profitable, but more importantly B) getting the guild achievement Mix Master is now within (easier) reach. To get some idea of the scope of the change, the herb reduction means a guild will go through 400 less stacks of herbs. Yes… four-hundred stacks. These aren’t 400 stacks of Cinderbloom either (for the most part). The Volatile Life demand will come as a consequence of the quantity of flasks being made, especially since each flask will take two more Volatile Life each, basically creating an extra 2,000 Life demand per guild.
Also supporting the extra herb/life demand will be the new Alchemy trinkets, like the Vibrant Alchemist Stone, which are amazing. Whether the alchemist never made one before or if they made the +Stamina version, chances are good that every Alchemist on your server is going to spending 50 more Volatile Life and nearly two more stacks of herbs each.
- More people will be running heroics. Not only have almost all the heroics been targeted with some precision nerfs, the recently announced broad-spectrum, ICC-esque 10% buff to players using the LFD tool will mean more successful heroic runs are being made. More successes mean it’s more likely that individuals will queue again, which means more cloth, more enchanting materials, and ultimately more demand for enhancements like gems, flasks, and even enchants as players more quickly replace their old gear and perhaps move on into raiding.
Two more things to keep in mind that are not necessarily patch-related, but will impact us nevertheless. First, the Darkmoon Faire is rolling back into town on Sunday. I fully expect the competition on the Darkmoon trinkets to be particularly fierce this go-around, so just keep in mind that you don’t have to undercut everyone; if your competition is going for a scorched-earth, fire-sale strategy, just hold onto your trinket until next week. If you have extra cards laying around or the mats to make them, the opposite is true: sell those to desperate players trying to find that one missing card and willing to pay a premium to avoid sitting around for another month.
The second is that Love is in the Air holiday is also starting on Sunday. It remains to be seen whether or not there will be any explicit money-making schemes like there was last year (Lovely Charm Bracelet fiasco anyone?), but it has been “confirmed” on Wowhead that the holiday boss drops ilevel 346 necklaces this year, some of which are strict sidegrades to the crafted JC ones. So if you were prepared to put down the cash for one, you might want to slow down. And if you were planning of selling some, well, you still might, but I would not take any undue risks attempting to do so.
Cataclysm JC Rings and Necklaces
[Note: Other blogs have talked about this topic already, a fact I was only made aware of about 10 minutes ago. However, I think I’m bringing a bit more beef and original research to the table, so just hang with me till the end]
There is a general sense on the WoW forums – something I read regularly as a sort of barometer for AH behavior “in the wild” as it were – that the crafted JC rings and necklaces are terrible, a waste of time, “should be epic 359s” and so on. For the most part, such lamentations are besides the point. Whether something is objectively good or not has no bearing on its marketability, as any Mysterious Fortune Card or cigarette seller can tell you. These JC items being remarkably amazing would certainly help things along, of course, but it is not strictly necessary.
But are they actually any good?
The short answer: Sure.
The long answer: Ehh… some of them, yes.
When looking for advice or comparisons for items, Wowhead is the first place I go to. Not only is the website extremely elegant despite having a rather robust database of information, but it has a comment section for every item that is fairly well self-policed. Good posts generally get “greened” pretty quick and the garbage is thrown out. The problem when looking at the JC crafted item comments was that there weren’t any. Until I made some. For all of them. My handle over on Wowhead is redraven937, and if you end up finding any of the comparisons useful, feel free to rate them up over there.
Instead of rewriting everything or simply copy/pasting what I wrote from Wowhead over to here, I’m going to do a quick summary. I still very much recommend checking out the items themselves to see how/why I arrived at my conclusions vis-a-vis whether the items are objectively good. Clicking on the item link will take you straight to my comparison comment. Keep in mind you can (probably) sell any of them at a 500g profit margin or higher regardless of how good or bad they are.
Elementium Moebius Band (tanking ring)
Verdict: Not recommended.
Reason: You get an extra +15 Stamina from this ring compared to the Revered Therazane ring, but most peoples’ mains will hit Revered after questing in Deepholm + a few days worth of dailies, so at best it will be the Moebius and the Felsen. What I found was that I liked the ring from Revered with Ramkahen, the Red Rock Band, since it doubled up as both a tank and DPS ring. The Moebius ends up having 5-10 extra item levels over the Red Rock, but getting two tanking rings from two factions was too easy for me to recommend the pattern.
By the way, there are three JCs in the AH right now on my realm getting into an undercut war over these rings, which are the easiest the craft. Highest buyout right now is 2800g. There is still a margin in there, but it is looking pretty slim.
Elementium Guardian (tanking neck)
Verdict: Very Good
Reason: There is no reputation alternative for (plate) tanking, and this necklace stacks up pretty favorably against the necklace off the JP vendor. Easy way to save yourself 18 heroic boss kills and applying those JPs towards other upgrades.
Ring of Warring Elements (Intellect ring)
Verdict: Slightly Good
Reason: The crafted ring is technically better item-point-wise than the Therazane ring, but it comes down to Haste vs Mastery, with most spellcasters preferring the former over the latter. Using one of each is fine, but Lost City of Tol’vir has two chances of dropping sidegrades in a single (usually easy) run.
Eye of Many Deaths (Intellect neck)
Verdict: Garbage
Reason: This item is underbudget. Normally, a socket on an item of this level comes at the expense of 20 Intellect, but the Eye loses 40. Yes, the socket bonus grants 10 back, but that still puts it 10 Intellect down from where it should be. To get an idea of what this means, compared to the necklace off the JP vendor, the Eye has +112 Haste vs +20 Int, +92 Spirit, +3 Mastery – in other words, 112 vs 115, but 20 of those points are from Intellect (e.g. they are worth more) so it is even worse.
Two other issues are that A) Twilight Highland factions offer an epic caster necklace at Exalted, and B) the upcoming Love is in the Air holiday is most likely going to be dropping 100% sidegrades to this crafted necklace.
Elementium Destroyer’s Ring (Agility Ring)
Verdict: Amazing
Reason: Simply put, this ring is probably overbudget. The other Agility ring is a joke compared to this one, as you end up looking at +30 Agility vs +27 Crit and +3 Hit – even if primary stats had the same item point budget as secondary stats (they don’t), under no circumstances is that Agility gain not leaps and bounds better. The budgeting discrepancies continue when compared to the other 346 Agility rings, with the Destroyer consistently coming out 9 item points ahead despite being 346 like all the others. This ring is the closest you can get in WoW to a free lunch.
Band of Blades (Agility Ring)
Verdict: Mostly Garbage
Reason: Now we know where the Elementium Destroyer got all its extra lunch money… by stealing from its little brother. Essentially, Band of Blades does not compare well with the Destroyer nor does it compare very well with the Therazane reputation ring – it has 116 vs 107 from the Therazane ring, but 10 of that 107 is straight-up Agility. I am not aware of the exact formula of primary vs secondary, but when you have to bust out that particular design rubric just to figure out if a potentially 5000g ring comes up even with an easy reputation option, it is time to throw in the towel.
Obviously Hit rating can be important, which is the only reason why Band of Blades is “mostly” garbage. None of the rings are Unique-Equipped, so if you have a dearth of Hit rating on your otherwise amazing gear, you might get some benefit from dual-wielding (dual-knuckling?) these rings.
Brazen Elementium Medallion (Agility Neck)
Verdict: Not Recommended Actually BiS?
Reason: Everyone who finishes questing in Hyjal will be Revered with the Guardians of Hyjal, which means all those people will have access to a necklace at level ~82 that they cannot wear until 85, but is basically identical to this crafted one. The Medallion (once socketed) will have +112 Crit over the Acorn‘s +96 Mastery and +5 Haste. Yes, 112 > 111. Incidentally, 5000g > 21g. Your market for this necklace will be idiots and people who have sworn a blood oath against questing in Hyjal. So, idiots, basically.
Update: As pointed out in the comments, Shadowpanther is actually showing this to be BiS for rogues, 2nd only to an epic 372 heroic Valiona neck drop. This obviously changes things quite a bit.
Entwined Elementium Choker (Agility Neck)
Verdict: Garbage
Reason: Against its Brazen brother, the Choker is down 11 item points. The Chocker is down 1 item point against the JP necklace. Finally, against the Acorn (aka Revered with Hyjal neck), the Choker sits at +65 Crit and +21 Haste vs Acorn’s 86 Mastery, e.g. they’re even. Individual stat weights will probably push the Choker ahead in that particular case, but nothing approaching it being more worthwhile to not just buy the damn Acorn.
Hopefully you will have found the above useful, as I spent a tremendous amount of time writing it all. As I mentioned before, whether or not the JC items are objectively good has no real bearing on your ability to squeeze some profit out of crafting them. I have personally sold two Eyes of Death for an average of 5500g thus far, and that is by far the worst/most underbudget option out of any of them. If all the rest were on the same level as the Elementium Guardian and Elementium Destroyer, we would probably see a lot nicer demand across the board.
But let’s be honest here: we have all probably sold Ice Cold Milk, Enchanting Vellums, Vanishing Powder, and so on, at 1000% mark-ups. If we can sell items to people standing not even 20 yards away from the vendor we bought it from, we can sell rare BoE jewelry that looks/sounds cool for 4000g or more.


