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Following the Money

Found a news article (via Reddit) with a refreshingly straight-forward headline: Newzoo: North American gamers spend an average of $325 annually The Reddit conversation focused mostly on how inexpensive gaming is as a hobby in dollars-per-hour terms, compared to going to a bar/movie ($20-$80) or even a concert/sporting event ($150-$800+). You know, traditional talking points.

After actually reading the article itself though, that wasn’t what this report is about:

The motivations behind player spending in these regions also differ. 34% of North American players spend money to unlock exclusive content, while 29% do so on personalisation/character customization. […]

The report also found that there’s diversity in player spending patterns between regions. In North America, 27% of players invest in content packs, power-ups, and in-game currencies, 24% buy subscriptions, and 23% purchase battle passes.

What’s conspicuously missing is “percentage spent buying the game.” At least, I assume unlocking exclusive content does not count. And actually, all those percentages are kind of weird. Is character customization not also exclusive content? Are content packs not battle passes? Who knows.

Regardless, the through line is clear:

According to the findings, the West games market is seeing slowing “payer growth,” with a 1.1% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in North America and 3.1% CAGR in Europe between 2023 and 2027. As such, Newzoo and Tebex recommend studios “shift from acquiring new players to maximizing value from existing ones.”

There’s a tangled web of chicken vs egg speculation about why player growth has slowed. Market saturation? Higher prices and too much “maximizing value” squeezing people out? Shaky economic future? The rise of lifestyle/live-service/forever games like Fortnite, Roblox, etc? (Time) Competition from short-form video content?

Funnily enough, most of these points were covered back in January in the Hopes of the Game Industry. And the answer is… Yes. All of those things, simultaneously. There have been tremendous layoffs in the games industry this year, including high-profile sequels and nearly-complete games thrown in the trash. We mourn the loss of what could have been, but the suits see how only ~12% of gaming hours are spent playing new games. Why risk $100m+ and eight years building a game when you can “maximize value” out of established ones? And if you don’t have any of those games, just buy’em up.

Again, it could be an interesting debate about which happened first. Did escalating prices for new games send players back into the arms of familiar classics? Or did the introduction of microtransactions start making games stickier, as a means of assuaging sunk costs?

True answers, if any exist, are academic at this point. Developers are following the money and it’s hard to blame them. Well, aside from being increasingly incapable of making fun games even after 4-8 years and tens millions of dollars and are now choosing to erode your consumer surplus instead.

You can certainly blame them for that.

Loot Boxes, Supplemental

We already know that Star Wars: Battlefront 2 has loot boxes and that they’re bad, but we can always use more articles about them, right? In the comments of that Kotaku article though, someone questioned the author about what exactly the “moral issue” is when a company is trying to extract money from their consumer base. The author responded with some more general criticisms of capitalism as a whole and the conditions it creates, but when pressed by the commenter again, came back with this:

If you really want the “Heather isn’t fucking around version,” here it is:

Loot boxes are, ignoring the hair splitting of insufferable pedants like yourself, gambling. They are crafted, from probabilities to visual to their contents, to condition individuals and encourage repeated purchase and use. People with addiction problems will be funneled towards a system designed scientifically to exploit them. Kids will open the shiny boxes. They’ll do it with their parents credit cards without understanding the effect. Players frustrated with the grind will throw down money because that’s what the grind is designed for: to fuck you over and take your cash so some executive can take a vacation while the people in the trenches crunch.

If you don’t see what the problem is or if you somehow think this an acceptable state of affairs or what to talk about how it’s some God given providence of the rich to seek further profits at any cost, I don’t know what to tell you because I am so very tired and I just don’t know how to explain to you (or anyone anymore) that you should care about other people.

Yeah, that.

Pretty much the only thing I would add to that is how the rise of “recurrent consumer spending opportunities” has perverted the fundamental design of these games. SWBF2 doesn’t need loot boxes in order achieve some gameplay goal – progression from simply playing the game is more than sufficient to generate fun. The loot boxes exist to make money, and that’s it.

If you don’t care because you’re not going to be playing SWBF2, well… just wait a while. Guild Wars 2 introduced the Mount Adoption License as a method of randomly delivering 30 new Mount skins. Most of the outrage has understandably been directed towards the fact that it’s gambling, especially if you were only interested in a few of the skins (a few of which are for a mount you might not ever get). But here’s the real rub: 30 Mount skins were introduced into the game with zero gameplay elements. These aren’t spoils for defeating a boss, these aren’t the rewards for a long quest-line, these aren’t the goal at the end of a difficult achievement. Nope, they’re just item shop fodder. If each were attached to a task that took an hour to complete, that’s like a month of casual content removed from each individual player.

Do loot boxes make games better? Fundamentally, that’s the question you should be asking yourself every time. A raid boss dropping random gear on a weekly reset creates content by encouraging you to face that raid boss again. A loot box dropping random gear does… what? You do not have to care about other people – although you probably should – to care that loot boxes are fundamentally destroying elegant game design. Instead of developers focusing on tighter gameplay loops or additional content, they care more about monetization opportunities. Which used to be “sell more copies of the game,” but is now “sell random in-game content for cash.”

You know, I never thought we’d see something more abhorrent than on-disc DLC. But here we are.