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Subnautica May Day… Maybe

Remember all the legal shenanigans surrounding Subnautica 2 from last year? If not, the basic gist was that Krafton bought Unknown Worlds several years ago for $500 million, with an additional $250 million bonus available if Subnautica 2 hit certain sales milestones by 2025. As the deadline approached, it was looking like Subnautica 2 might squeak into Early Access in time after all, and possibly trigger the payout. Then Krafton fired the founders for alleged nonfeasance, and otherwise muddied the waters as much as possible. Litigation has been ongoing ever since.

Until now, anyway. A judge rejected Krafton’s claims, ordered the former CEO Ted Gill reinstated, and the $250 million bonus deadline extended until September 2026:

“Frustrated by the Key Employees’ refusal to forfeit operation control and facing a nine-figure liability, Krafton went searching for a pretext,” the judge wrote, slamming Krafton’s previous claims that Gill and others had “abandoned their responsibilities.”

“Krafton’s true focus in June 2025 was avoiding its financial exposure,” the judge wrote. “It knew Subnautica 2 was poised to achieve a $250 million earnout, which Kim viewed as a catastrophic failure. Krafton undertook ‘Project X’ to either force a deal on the earnout or execute a ‘takeover’ of the studio. Terminating the Founders was one tactic explored and ultimately chosen by Krafton to accomplish its goal.”

If you were curious about the “financial exposure”:

Eligibility for the performance-based earnout is determined by Unknown Worlds’ revenue through December 31, 2025, with an option to extend the earnout period through June 2026. The earnout formula is highly leveraged. If Unknown Worlds surpasses a revenue threshold of $69.8 million, Krafton must pay $3.12 for each additional dollar of revenue generated, up to the $250 million cap.

To better visualize this, here’s a spreadsheet I made:

Subnautica 2 RevenueKraftonUnknown Worlds
$69,800,000.00$69,800,000.00$0.00
$92,171,794.87$0.00$69,800,000.00
$149,928,205.13-$100,071,794.87$250,000,000.00
$250,000,000.00$0.00$250,000,000.00
$319,800,000.00$69,800,000.00$250,000,000.00

So, if Subnautica 2 earns $69.8 million, Krafton keeps all the revenue. Each dollar after that is exponentially worse to the point that Krafton is potentially $100 million in the hole if the game caps out at $150 million in revenue. It’s not until after almost $320 million in total revenue that Krafton gets back the original $69.8 million they “start” with. I don’t know if these bonus payout schemes are normal in the industry, but is it not obvious how much corporate fuckery it invites?

Incidentally, the court records indicated that Krafton’s own finance team estimated over 1.67 million copies sold by Q4 2025 (from an August 2025 early access launch), which would trigger a payout between $191 million and $242 million. So, yeah, right in that Krafton “dead zone” of negative money.

The entire court PDF was a fascinating read, by the way. Back in November, I remember reading an article alleging that Krafton CEO Changhan Kim – the same guy who spearheaded the acquisition in the first place – tried to get Legal to get out of the contract. When he was told by Legal that Krafton would still have to pay out the bonus, he turned to ChatGPT for advice… which also said it was a bad idea. Nevertheless, Kim persisted until ChatGPT spit out an approach that he enacted almost verbatim. The allegation certainly had some “big if true” energy to it. And, well, it was true.

185 Kim Tr. 440-41. Kim admitted at trial that he had deleted specific, relevant ChatGPT logs. Id. at 441. This particular chat was deleted. Id.

Woof.

Anyway, problem solved, Subnautica 2 is on track for a May 2026 early access release!

or is it?

In another burst of last minute corporate fuckery, Steve Papoutsis (the Krafton-appointed CEO who replaced Ted Gill) sent out an internal memo to the Subnautica 2 team congratulating them on their hard work and saying Krafton has green-lit the release of the game into Early Access in May. This memo was then “leaked” to the world and Krafton acknowledged its veracity to IGN. Which is cool and all, aside from the fact that Ted Gill had yet to be reinstated as CEO, from which he was illegally removed. Motions are already being filed, and Krafton’s argument appears to be that the release date determination came before the judgment, so haha, oops, we did nothing wrong.

So… maybe not May? It’s very possible that the actual developers of Subnautica 2 have been keeping their nose to the grindstone this whole time and the game is ready to go. Or maybe ChatGPT told Krafton executives that their best bet was a reduced-fanfare rollout and hope expected revenue was depressed as a result, thereby limiting liabilities. I’ve certainly heard people on Reddit saying that they don’t want to buy the game and support Krafton as a result. Which is a bit silly in context of the payout, considering the best possible way to punish Krafton is to get Subnautica 2 to $150 million in revenue, directly causing a $100 million Krafton loss.

Regardless, we’ll undoubtedly see something released between May and September. Missing the earnout window after all this time drama would be… criminal.

Teanautica

Do you enjoy some gaming drama? What am I asking, who doesn’t? Pull up a chair and let’s spill it.

First, set the stage. Subnautica was a much-beloved underwater indie breakout hit created by Unknown Worlds. The follow-up semi-sequel, Below Zero… not so much. Nevertheless, the actual sequel Subnautica 2 is the second-most wishlisted game on Steam, trailing Hollow Knight: Silksong. Krafton buys Unknown Worlds in 2021. Subnautica 2 was revealed to be in development since April 2022, had a cinematic video released October 2024, and reports it would have an Early Access release sometime in 2025. In April of this year, there was even a few gameplay trailers.

And then a shoe dropped: Krafton, the company that purchased Unknown Worlds for $500m had fired the entire executive leadership, and delayed the game until 2026. Why? “It wasn’t ready.”

Charlie Cleveland, now-former head of Unknown Worlds, said it was ready for Early Access. Which, okay, just a leadership spat, right? But then came the juice: a Bloomberg report that highlighted special “earn-in” terms of the Unknown Worlds buyout. Specifically, if Unknown Worlds was able to meet certain sales targets by the end of 2025, they would get a $250m bonus. All of a sudden, it became obvious that Krafton sacked the leadership team and delayed Subnautica 2 just to avoid the payout.

…or was it?

Krafton resurfaced to hang all the dirty laundry out to dry:

[…] Specifically, in addition to the initial $500 million purchase price, we allocated approximately 90% of the up to $250 million earn-out compensation to the three former executives, with the expectation that they would demonstrate leadership and active involvement in the development of Subnautica 2.

However, regrettably, the former leadership abandoned the responsibilities entrusted to them. Subnautica 2 was originally planned for an Early Access launch in early 2024, but the timeline has since been significantly delayed. KRAFTON made multiple requests to Charlie and Max to resume their roles as Game Director and Technical Director, respectively, but both declined to do so. In particular, following the failure of Moonbreaker, KRAFTON asked Charlie to devote himself to the development of Subnautica 2. However, instead of participating in the game development, he chose to focus on a personal film project.

KRAFTON believes that the absence of core leadership has resulted in repeated confusion in direction and significant delays in the overall project schedule. The current Early Access version also falls short in terms of content volume. We are deeply disappointed by the former leadership’s conduct, and above all, we feel a profound sense of betrayal by their failure to honor the trust placed in them by our fans.

Incidentally, there’s an additional paragraph down towards the end that says Krafton “reaffirm our commitment to provide the rewards [the remaining devs] were promised.” It remains to be seen whether that is indeed $25m, whether it is still dependent on the same targets, and so on. Now that everything is in the open, I think it will be harder for the working devs to be screwed, but we’ll see.

As you can imagine, Reddit and a lot of the internet is awash in hot takes. Most of which are bad.

“Krafton is clearly lying!” “Obvious corporate fuckery.” “They are just trying to get out from paying $250m.” “Krafton is using weasel words and won’t be paying the other devs money either.”

I sympathize with these notions. At least, I did until I found out that Charlie Cleveland really was taking the piss. Krafton’s statement of “chose to focus on a personal film project” comically undersells it:

That’s from Charlie’s website. Also from his website, in the About section:

I’m Charlie Cleveland and I’ve been designing video games for over 25 years. I founded Unknown Worlds and built games like Natural Selection, Natural Selection 2, Subnautica and Moonbreaker. I absolutely love making games but wanted to try something new.

At the end of 2023, I left San Francisco after almost 20 years and moved to Los Angeles to reset my life. Instead of taking it easy, I now find myself working on multiple film projects. It’s amazing how fast it’s all happening – being right in the thick of things makes it so much easier to meet like-minded people!

What else should have been taking place at the end of 2023? Maybe… working on your fucking game?

Don’t want to trust Krafton’s motives? Fine, don’t. But let’s not pretend ole Cleveland Steamer over here was doing anything other than quiet quitting and waiting for his cut of $225m off the backs of devs who were otherwise floundering.

The leaked presentation slides claim that between Q2 2023 and Q2 2025, Unknown Worlds removed two biomes, one Leviathan type, multiple creatures and tools, one vehicle (Trident), character customization features, the custom game mode, and six hours’ worth of story content. While many of those elements were merely delayed rather than completely cut, their omissions have scaled down the early access build significantly, “making it necessary to reassess the feasibility of the planned launch,” one of the leaked slides reads.

The three fired founders are suing, of course, so perhaps we’ll get more salacious details in discovery. Or maybe it will just be settled out of court. Whatever the case, what I do think is abundantly clear and not nearly communicated enough is this: the founders of Unknown Worlds very clearly fucked off and were waiting for a second paycheck they did not earn. Did Krafton suddenly fire them to prevent Subnautica 2 from entering (a premature) Early Access and thus likely getting enough revenue to trigger a $250m payout? Yeah. Clearly, yes. But was that wrong? No, clearly no.

Charlie elsewhere claims they always shared the profits and would have shared the $225m payout with the actual employees building Subnautica 2 and rah rah rah. That’s a cute sentiment, and I’d almost believe it if he hadn’t abandoned the team. “Subnautica has been my life’s work and I would never willingly abandon it or the amazing team that has poured their hearts into it.” So… were ya working on Subnautica 2 or were ya not, homeslice? Attended the meetings? Signed off on the ever-reducing Early Access scope? Got any receipts, my friend? Or just mad you’re in the Find Out phase?

I’m about as anti-corporate as it comes – feel free to read any of the 1500+ posts from over a decade to confirm. But what I have realized time and time again, is two things:

  1. M. Night Shymalan
  2. The corporate call is coming from inside the corporate house

Don’t take Charlie’s side just because you really liked Subnautica. It’s a beautiful flower in a sea of shit and should be celebrated. The same dev team went on to make Below Zero, and Charlie fucked off to make Moonbreaker. They are not gods, they are not heroes, and chances are none of them have any idea how or why the games they made were any good in the first place. Some games are simply products of their time and would have not have been as successful had they come earlier or later. If they really had the secret sauce, every game would be better than the last. And that is rare.

Also, after you get bought out for $500m with another $250m queued up in a couple of years, if you cared maybe you can sit your ass behind a desk for a minute to ensure your team gets the cut. Or, you know… don’t, and then quit out of principle and go make your AI-seeded Christmas movie. Pick a lane.

Anyway, little ranty at the end there, but it’s Drama with the capital D. You’re welcome.