Category Archives: Commentary

Infiltration

I’ve talked a lot about AI in hypotheticals, although it is certainly having real-world effects in various fields already. Nevertheless, nothing else quite hits the same as it occurring at your place of business.

For context, general staff where I work have been using ChatGPT for more than a year now. Mostly, it has been used to summarize their own notes, check grammar, and so on. All of which had been expressly against policy, considering how the notes in question are filled with sensitive personal information that has now been consumed by OpenAI servers and possibly regurgitated into someone else’s results. There’s no fighting the tide though, so the executives worked with various regulatory agencies to bring in a “walled-off” version of (I think) Microsoft’s version of AI into the fold.

Things took a particularly different track the week before the holidays.

See, there have been a number of initiatives and requests over the years from staff to get electronic versions of paper forms, and/or to modernize the electronic forms they already use. Our IT shop is small for an organization of our size, with just 2-3 programmers on staff for such requests. The latest form to be modernized has taken almost two years to be completed, for… various reasons I won’t go into here. So when a new request came in for a different form, it was not much of a surprise to learn that the estimate was ~2,000 programming hours. For us, that sounded about right.

And then… the senior programmer just completed the entire form in about 100 hours via AI.

During the impromptu “demo,” he outline his methodology, which was essentially guiding the AI into building each specific section of the form separately. Interestingly, as each section was built and tweaked by the programmer, the entire codebase was (apparently) re-entered into the prompt to ensure later sections integrated with the earlier pieces. All of which took the stated 100 hours and around $50 worth of AI credits. I think this was via Github Copilot, on one of the lower “settings.”

Brilliant, right? If this outcome is reproducible with other forms – and the form in question doesn’t self-destruct down the road – it will effectively save the organization millions of dollars over time. There is nothing but unambiguous good about it, yeah? People dream about a 20x improvement in efficiency!

So, here’s the thing. The form we’re talking about already exists as a PDF and Word document. It now also existing in what amounts to a company website could possibly save some amount of staff time, but the overall return on investment by any metric was dubious from the get-go. Is going from 2000 to 100 impressive? Yes. Would I expect our junior programmer to be able to reproduce the same 100-hour outcome? No. Is there a very real possibility that the next round of hirings will exclude junior programmer positions? Yes. Does anyone have grand designs for how junior programmers will become senior programmers in the future? No. Will future AI use for a similar effort also cost $50? Fuck no.

If you’re pessimistic about an AI future, you’re a Luddite, fighting an absurd battle to keep buggy whips relevant. “Get with the times, old man! The future is now!” Sure, okay. Question, though: do you feel we are well positioned, politically or economically, for the fruits of AI investments to improve the lives of the working class? Or perhaps are we just automating the creation of shit sandwiches?

Alas.

End of Year: 2025 Edition

Similar to 2024, with 100% more leopards eating faces.

Workwise, not much has changed since last time around… which is a good thing! I have put off the certification I needed, but procrastination won’t be possible in 2026. There are a few people who will be retiring in the next year or two, and I’ve been given the nod to take over for one of them. While the increased title will be nice, the pay bump is generally limited to 5% and is not really worth the added stress. Nevertheless, it is really the only form of advancement left where I’m at and I still have quite some time until pension-based retirement. Hope the world still exists in a recognizable state by then!

Family-wise, everything is fantastic. Wife managed to get her student (including graduate) loans forgiven literal weeks before Trump started fucking everyone over, so that’s good. The Little Man is making tremendous progress in 1st grade and overcoming all sorts of challenges that came his way. Also, he’s playing videogames now, so my life is just about complete.

Onto the games played this calendar year.

Steam (325.5h)

  • Abiotic Factor [157h]
  • Final Fantasy 7: Rebirth [49h]
  • Stone Shard [43h]
  • Laika: Aged Through Blood [19.5h]
  • Sons of the Forest [15h]
  • Backpack Hero [13h]
  • Beneath Oresa [7.5h]
  • Hadean Tactics [6h]
  • Morimens [4.5h]
  • Stacklands [3.5h]
  • Elex [2.5h]
  • Soulmask [2h]
  • Len’s Island [2h]
  • War Pips [1h]

Under my normal “rules,” Abiotic Factor should not be on the list, as I played ~19 hours of it last year. However… seems a bit silly to not have it on there, no? The Steam Replay stats show that I had a 21-day streak of booting it up, with an overall count of 64 sessions. Which means that I played over two hours on average each time. Really a testament to how hard I fall for good survival crafting games.

Speaking of both rules and survival crafting games, I did leave off 7 Days to Die (Rebirth mod) and No Man’s Sky despite racking up about 40-50 additional hours apiece on them. The former has been getting a lot of very interesting updates on the base game lately, indicating a practically seismic shift in terms of dev attitude. For example, they brought back glass jars! Regarding NMS, I like what they’re doing with things, I just wish they’d put more than like three people on getting Light No Fire started.

Epic Game Store (10h)

  • Lord of the Rings: Return to Moria [6h]
  • Red Dead Redemption 2 [4h]

Yep. How embarrassing is that? Epic is even offering Battlefield 6 for $49 plus 20% back and I still had to have a long think on it. I’m actually passing on BF6 for now because I don’t want to get into another time-killing game when I have so many single-player experiences waiting to be, er, experienced. Many of which are, in fact, on Epic. Perhaps playing Epic games will lead me to opening the launcher more…

Xbox Game Pass (228.5h)

  • Avowed [67h]
  • The Outer Worlds 2 [62.5h]
  • Death Howl [24h]
  • The Alters [24h]
  • Monster Train 2 [8h]
  • Hollow Knight: Silksong [7.5h]
  • Stalker 2 [7h]
  • BALL x PIT [5h]
  • Kingdom Two Crowns [5h]
  • Sea of Stars [5h]
  • Blue Prince [4h]
  • One Lonely Outpost [3.5h]
  • Atomfall [2.5h]
  • Lightyear Frontier [1.5h]
  • 9 Kings [1h]
  • Orcs Must Die! Deathtrap [1h]

As always, one has to ask “was Game Pass worth the subscription this year?” Unlike in prior years, I had no banked cheap subscription cards, so I paid $148 total (including December’s new $16.50 price). Based merely on the games played and the hours thereof… probably not. Granted, Avowed and The Outer Worlds 2 retailed for $70 apiece, so technically just those two alone would have paid for everything, let alone Alters and Silksong. To say nothing of the other games I have installed and ready to go, like Clair Obscur: Expedition 33, Metaphor: ReFantazio, Warhammer 40k: Rogue Trader. Or the others I have bookmarked like Hogwarts Legacy, Dragon Age: Veilguard, Grounded 2, and so on.

In other words, if the subscription wasn’t worth it, that’s really on me.

Game-wise, it’s a bit funny seeing two Obsidian games up there at the same time, e.g. Avowed and Outer Worlds 2. They share a lot of the same DNA, including how traversal feels in the world, but also some of the same foibles, e.g. problematic Legendary weapons, lack of romance options for companions. Once I get around to finishing Outer Worlds 2, it will be interesting to gauge how it feels in comparison to its brother. The answer may end up surprising you! (Hint: one game allows respecs).

Switch (unknown hours)

  • Super Mario Odyssey
  • Super Mario Wonder
  • Mario Kart 8

Yeah, buddy! Father-son game time! The Little Man has a long way to go in terms of solo play, but I really appreciated being able to play Odyssey with one person controlling Mario and the other the hat. Indeed, we straight-up beat that game a few months ago now, and have even restarted as my son wanted to play it again. This time, I’m a backseat driver at most (with Assist Mode on, of course).

Super Mario Wonder is another hit with The Little Man, but as a more straight-up platformer, it’s considerably more difficult. In Odyssey, you can get hit five times before dying, and even go hide somewhere to regain your health. If you drop down a pit in Wonder, you dead. Or rather, you will float back as a ghost and only lose the life if your partner can’t touch you within the five-second window. Still, the penalty is much harsher. And somehow we all raw-dogged this kind of shit back in the 80s?

The Switch has a lot of additional games at the ready, for when The Little Man gets a bit better and/or I have more inclination to play it by myself. For example, I have both Breath of the Wild and Tears of the Kingdom on there. Oh, and Super Mario Galaxy 1 & 2 are on their way.

Guild Wars 2 (probably several hundred hours)

Yep, still playing every day since I re-re-restarted back in October. It’s probably the #1 factor in how little I have “accomplished” in terms of other game completion. Then again, if I were truly in the mood for whatever else, I probably would have just played that. I made time for Outer Worlds 2, for example.

As far as what I’m doing, well, I finally got around of completing the Secrets of the Obscure expansion story after months of slow-rolling it. I also started Janthir Wilds long enough to unlock Spears, as that seems to be a meta weapon for several classes. Chances are good that I skip Janthir for now and go directly into the newer Visions of Eternity, if only because that’s where most daily/weekly quests are pointing. Plus, you know, most people and/or most profitable activities.

Incidentally, I sprung for some gem store purchases a few days ago, after essentially talking myself out of a few Steam games. After all, if my argument is that spending money on games I’m not going to play immediately is silly, then that means spending money on games you are currently playing must be wise. That’s how it works, right?

Other Unmentionables

I stopped playing Hearthstone back in October and the streak of not playing continues. I even uninstalled it from my phone, freeing up like 8 GB of space. Still have it installed on the PC though.

Hmm… October. Isn’t that about the time I started playing Guild Wars 2 again? Surely a coincidence!

What’s Next

As always, I vacillate between “must finish games before uninstalling” and “stop playing when you stop having fun.” Last year was the latter, and this year will be the former. Sorta. I’m a reasonable guy. For example, I want to close out FF7: Rebirth because the final part of the trilogy is something I want to play. Elden Ring though? It’s been two years, so that is probably getting uninstalled. Anyway, the list!

  1. The Outer Worlds 2
  2. Final Fantasy 7: Rebirth
  3. Clair Obscur: Expedition 33
  4. Baldur’s Gate 3 (for real for real)
  5. Death Stranding (for real for real for real)

Those are in order, although perhaps Death Stranding should be above BG3, I dunno. There are more games that I probably “should” be playing, but let’s be reasonable, shall we?

Blurry Lines

It occurs to me that in the last post, I brought up Larian Studios’ use of AI for “boring” work, but did not otherwise offer an opinion on the subject. Do they deserve to get the scarlet AI letter brand? Or perhaps will they received a reprieve, on account of not being Activision-Blizzard (etc)?

It helps to level-set. Here is more/most of the transcript from the Larian interview:

JS: Speaking of efficiency, you’ve spoken a little bit about generative AI. And I know that that’s been a point of discussion on the team, too. Do you feel like it can speed up production?

SV: In terms of generation, like white boxing, yes, there’s things, but I’m not 100% sure if you’re actually seeing speed-ups that much. You’re trying more stuff. Having tried stuff out, I don’t actually think it accelerates things. Because there’s a lot of hype out there. I haven’t really seen: oh this is really gonna replace things. I haven’t seen that yet. I’ve seen a lot of where you initially get excited, oh, this could be cool. And then you say, ah, you know, in the end it doesn’t really do the thing. Everything is human actors; we are writing everything ourselves. There’s no generated assets that you’re gonna see in the game. We are trying to use generated assets to accelerate white-boxing. But I mean to be fair, we’re talking about basic things to help the level designers.

JS: What about concept art?

SV: So that’s being used by concept artists. They use it the same like they would use photos. We have like 30 concept artistis at this point or something like that. So we bought a boutique concept art firm at the moment that everybody was using reducing them because they were going to AI, in our case it just went up. If there’s one thing that artists keep on asking for its more concept artists. But what they do is they use it for exploration.

[…]

SV: I think experimentation, white boxing, some broader white boxing, lots and lots of applications and retargeting and cleaning and editing. These are things that just really take a lot of time. So that allows you to do more. So there’s a lot of value there in terms of the creative process itself. It helps in doing things. But I haven’t seen the acceleration. So I’m really curious to see because there’s all studios that said, oh, this is gonna accelerate… If you look at the state of the art of video games today, these are still in their infancy. Will they eventually manage to do that at large scale? I don’t know how much data centers they’re gonna need to be able to do it.

So what I would say is that what Larian is doing is materially different than a company, say, using AI to generate random newspapers to place around a city. Or, you know, use AI to voice characters entirely. Copy & pasting AI-generated output directly into your game seems like a pretty clear line not to cross.

Personally though, there are other lines that are blurrier and on a slippery decline.

Take the concept artists. Larian hired a bunch at a time when many were getting replaced with AI. Good Guy Larian. Even if, perhaps, they may have been on a bit of a discount on account of, you know, AI pressure on their field of work. Whatever, humans good. We then learn that these same concept artists use generative AI for “exploration,” either instead of or, optimistically, in tandem with more traditional photos. That’s where things start to break down for me.

Suppose a concept artist wants to draw a lion. To do so, they would like to have a bunch of photos of lions for reference material. I understand the allure of saving time by simply getting ChatGPT or whatever to spit out 30 lion photos in various states of movement, rather than manually doing Google searches, going to zoo websites, and so on. The seduction of the follow-up prompt is right there though. “Lions roaring.” “Lions pouncing on antelope.” “Lion with raven wings attacking a paladin.”

[AI generated image] My meaningless contribution to entropy just to make an internet point.

And yeah, that looks goofy as shit. The artists will redraw it in the style that fits the game and nobody will notice. But maybe the team likes the look of the dust and mountainous landscape. They incorporate that. Maybe they include an armor set that matches that style. Or the sun symbol. Over time, maybe the team takes what the people themselves came up with and start running it through the prompts “just in case” the AI spits out something similarly interesting. And so on and so forth.

“So what? What’s the harm?”

Well, how much time do you have? I’m going to focus exclusively on the videogame angle here, rather than environmental impacts, cognitive studies, and apocalypse risk from agentic, self-improving AI.

The first concern is becoming reliant upon it. Larian is apparently hiring concept artists today, but maybe in the not so distant future, they don’t. Anyone can type in a prompt box. Over time, the entire concept artist field could disappear. And what is replacing it? An AI model that is incentivized in giving you exactly what it thinks you want. This will lead to homogenization, the sort of “AI glow,” and even if you wanted to fight the current… who is still economically capable of producing the bespoke human work? And would they not just turn around and tweak AI output and call it a day (it’s happened before)?

Incidentally, the other part of AI reliance is the fact that you own none of it. Right now, these AI firms lose money any time people use it, but that is going to stop eventually. When it does, you are either going to be on the hook for tens of thousands of dollars a month for a license, or desperately trying to filter out ad placements from the output. Maybe open source LLMs (or corporate saboteurs) will save us from such a fate, but there won’t be a non-AI fallback option because the job doesn’t exist anymore.

The second concern is something that these companies definitely feel the effects of already, but apparently don’t give much thought about: we are very much in a crowded, attention economy. On one end you have short-form video eating into gamer time, and on the other you have legacy games continuing to dominate playtimes. For example, Steam’s year-end report showed that just 14% of gamer time was spent playing games released in 2025. Is that figure skewed by Steam exclusives like Counter-Strike 2? Maybe. Then again, Steam is the largest, most ubiquitous PC storefront in the world and had 1.5+ million concurrent players in Counter-Strike 2 yesterday. That’s a lot of people who could be playing anything other than a game from 2012.

Now imagine that all of the promises of AI have come true for videogame devs. Six year timelines become four years or even two. Great! Who is going to be playing your game with what time? Over 19,000 games came out on Steam in 2025. Are all of them AAA titles winning awards? Of course not. But what does AAA even mean in a flowers-and-rainbow AI scenario? Maybe $50-$100+ million still makes a big difference in quality, fine. But that certainly didn’t save Black Ops 7, Borderlands 4, Concord, the dead-on-eventual-arrival Highguard, and so on.

Now imagine what happens when there are… 190,000 games released in a year.

As a player, I suppose in this hypothetical we come out ahead; there are more games specifically tailored to our exact preferences. For the game makers though, well, most of them are going to fail. Or perhaps the hobbyist ones survive, assuming a lower AI license cost. I don’t see how AAA survives with the increased competition and a reduced competitive edge (mo-cap, CGI, etc); hell, they are struggling to survive already. To say nothing about the discoverability issues. Maybe AI will fix that too, yeah?

In summation, my thoughts on the matter:

  1. Copy & pasting literal AI assets in your game is bad
  2. Using AI for inspiration leads to being trapped in an AI ecosystem
  3. AI-shortened development times leads to no one making any money

Of course, the cat genie is out of the lamp bag and never going back into the toothpaste tube. Taking a hard stance on #1 – to include slapping AI labels on Steam pages and the like – is not going to prevent #2 and #3. Hell, everyone in the industry wants shortened development times. I just don’t think anyone fully appreciates what that sort of thing would look like, until after the monkey paw curls.

In the meantime, as a gamer… eh, do what you want. I personally don’t want any generative AI elements in the games I play, for all the reasons I already outlined above (plus the ones I intentionally skipped). At the same time, I don’t have the bandwidth to contemplate how much GitHub Copilot use by a random programmer constitutes too much for them to qualify for a GOTY award. And if you’re not turning off DLSS 3 or FSR out of principal, what are you even doing, amirite?

“Normal People Don’t Care”

There is a minor, ongoing media kerfuffle with the internet-darling Larian Studios (makers of Baldur’s Gate 3, Original Sin 2, etc). It started with this Bloomberg article, wherein Jason Schreier writes:

Under Vincke, Larian has been pushing hard on generative AI, although the CEO says the technology hasn’t led to big gains in efficiency. He says there won’t be any AI-generated content in Divinity — “everything is human actors; we’re writing everything ourselves” — but the creators often use AI tools to explore ideas, flesh out PowerPoint presentations, develop concept art and write placeholder text.

The use of generative AI has led to some pushback at Larian, “but I think at this point everyone at the company is more or less OK with the way we’re using it,” Vincke said.

There are possible charitable and a not-so-chartable takes on those words, and suffice it to say, many people chose the latter. Vincke responded with a “Holy fuck guys [chill out]” Twitter response, with clarifications and emphasis that they only use AI for reference material and other boring things, and not with actual content. Jason Schreier also chimed in with an original transcript of the interview, as a response to others suggesting that what Schreier wrote was itself misleading.

As a side note, this portion of the transcript was extra interesting to me:

JS: It doesn’t seem like it’s causing more efficiency, so why use it?

SV: This is a tech driven industry, so you try stuff. You can’t afford not to try things because if somebody finds the golden egg and you’re not using it, you’re dead in this industry.

I suppose I should take Vincke’s word on the matter, considering how he released a critically-acclaimed game that sold 20 million copies, and I have… not. But, dead? Larian Studios has over 500 employees at this point, so things are likely different at these larger scales. I’m just saying the folks that made, you know, Silksong or Megabonk are probably going to be fine without pushing AI into their processes.

Anyway, all of that is actually a preamble to what sent me to this keyboard in the first place. In the Reddit comments of the second Schreier piece, this exchange took place:

TheBlightDoc: How could he NOT realize how controversial the genAI comments would be? Has he been living under a rock? Or does he himself believe AI is not a big deal? :laughing:

SexyJazzCat: The strong anti AI sentiment is a very chronically online thing. Normal people don’t actually care.

do not engage… do not engage… do not engage

Guys, it’s hard out here in 2025. And I’m kinda all done. Tapped out. Because SexyJazzCat is correct.

Normal people don’t actually care. We know this because “normal” people voted the current administration back into office. Normal people don’t understand that measles can reset your immune system, erasing all your hard-fought natural immunities. Normal people don’t understand that every AI data center that springs up in your area is subsidized by increases to your own electric bill. Normal people don’t understand that tariffs are taxes that they end up paying for. Normal people don’t understand that even if they didn’t use ACA subsidies, their health insurance is going to wildly increase anyway because hospitals won’t be reimbursed for emergency care from newly uninsured people. Nevermind the, you know, general human misery this creates.

Normal people don’t actually care about AI. But they should. Or perhaps should have, past tense, because we’re far past the end of a very slippery slope and fully airborne. Normal people are just going to be confused as to why computers, phones, and/or videogame consoles are wildly more expensive in 2026 (e.g. RAM crisis). Or if AI successfully demonstrates real efficiency gains, surprised when they are out of a job. Or if AI crashes and burns, why they also still lost their job and their 401k cratered (e.g. 40% of S&P 500 value is in AI companies).

The only thing that I still wish for these days, is this: people have the kind of day they voted for.

Of All Time

I was browsing a Reddit thread called “We haven’t seen a good space opera game where you play a spaceship commander with a loyal crew since 2012”. The image in the post was for Mass Effect 3, to remove any doubt of to what space opera they were referring. Quite a few people pointed out that, in fact, the Outer Worlds series has been released since then. Amongst the pushback that the Outer Worlds is even remotely close to Mass Effect quality, was this rejoinder:

It’s easy to forget that many people here are young kids who only know things that came out this year.

That’s why you constantly hear about <insert aggressively average game here> being “the greatest of all time”, because for them “all time” is like 3 years.

It’s funny to imagine being a part of a cadre of human beings for which it’s somewhat possible to have a comprehensive experience on a matter. Like, if you were to ask what is the greatest adventure novel of all time, you would have literally a thousand years of human written storytelling to go through. Conversely, the first videogame RPG came out in 1980, depending on your definition of RPG. Even if you limit it to “classical” console-style RPGs, that moves the needle to 1986 with Dragon Quest.

My own personal experience with videogames started in the late NES era, and only really kicked off in the halcyon Squaresoft/SNES days of the mid-90s. Although, even then, there were gaps. For example, I never played Final Fantasy 4. Indeed, I tried playing it a few times in the last decade or so, and couldn’t really bring myself to get particularly far. Which shouldn’t be too surprising considering how few modern videogames (that I even paid for!) I complete on average.

And that sort of brings me back to the quote. Obviously young people exist – I hear their distinct cries of “six SEVEN” down the road all the time. And there is always a conversation surrounding whether old games hold up to modern play, even by the people who profess their greatest of all time status. But it nevertheless feels… tragic? Is that an appropriate word? It feels tragic to imagine a young person’s entire view of quality being limited to such a small time horizon.

That is, of course, how everything works. Has always worked. “GOAT” has always had asterisks galore, even (or especially) if denied. Greatest (in my subjective opinion) of All (that I’m aware of) Time (up to this moment). GIMSOOATIAOTUTTM just didn’t have the same ring to it though.

P.S. This makes me officially old, doesn’t it?

P.P.S. I already had an Officially Old tag from two years ago?! I’m actively turning to dust right now.

Sorta Black Friday, 2025 Edition

I started writing a list of games I had an eye on at the start of the holidays, and it has since passed me by with nary a thing purchased. At least, not from this list. Regardless, here it is for posterity:

  • Dragon’s Dogma 2 – $22.07 (GameBillet)
  • Dying Light 2 Reloaded Edition – $19.79 (Fanatical)
  • God of War – $17.59 (GameBillet)
  • Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice GOTY Edition – $29.99 (Steam)
  • Ghost of Tsushima Director’s Cut – $31.75 (GameBillet)
  • Horizon: Forbidden West Complete Edition – $32.35 (GameBillet)
  • Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2 – $32.99 (AllYouPlay)
  • Last of Us Part 2 Remastered – $33.98 (GameBillet)

On reflection, it’s pretty much just a list of every mainstream game released in the last 5 years. My actual wishlist is longer, but I sometimes forget that Steam doesn’t consider Black Friday to be a real holiday – most everything was not on sale, as it would normally be during the Winter Sale, for example.

I really need a replacement for my bootleg Photoshop… Snipping Tool and Paint aren’t cutting it.

What I did end up ordering this “holiday” season were technically two more Switch accessories. First was the 8Bitdo Lite 2 controller ($21), as a smaller controller for the Little Man. The normal Switch joy-cons sorta work for his hands already – using just one when playing Mario Kart 8, for example – but honestly I don’t like them all that much. If I want him to get more coordinated and better at videogames, getting used to a somewhat more “real” controller makes more sense. Plus, worst-case scenario, the controller itself works on Android devices.

The second item is the GameSir G8 Plus ($49 AliExpress), which is a telescoping bluetooth controller. While it can work with phones and even smaller tablets, the primary use-case is the Switch itself. There was a cheaper, Switch-specific option available, but again, I’m all about accounting for worst-case scenarios. To date, I have not played the Switch outside of Little Man co-op sessions in the living room, which means no Breath of the Wild (etc). If I’m being honest, I do not anticipate this purchase immediately solving that issue, but at least it eases some of the (future) potential friction.

Aside from all that, I am just continuing to quietly play Guild Wars 2 and Outer Worlds 2. Once the latter is finished, my plan is to move onto the last (hopefully) 10% of Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth, so as to free up 154 GB of space. After that… who knows. Baldur’s Gate 3 is right there. Death Stranding, too. Red Dead Redemption 2 as well. Or, you know, all of those Switch games I was talking about earlier.

Oh, or maybe Expedition 33! It is on Game Pass already…

Blowing Off Steam (Machine)

We have all the details about Valve’s new PConsole except the only thing that really matters: price.

What’s in How much is the booooooooooox?

There are a lot of reasons why Valve might be slow-rolling that particular detail. For one thing, the amount of free press being generated by endless videos and news articles (and blog posts, oops) is enormous. Ten thousand TF2 hats off to the Valve marketing department. Or perhaps it’s like a trial balloon to gauge consumer interest at various price-points. Or maybe the answer is dead-ass simple: because nobody knows what prices for components will look like more than two days in advance, let alone a few months from now. RAM prices have almost doubled in the last two months. It certainly wouldn’t be a good look for any company to raise the price of a console three times in a year.

The whole conversation about whether Valve is really trying to squeeze into the console market and compete with Sony and Microsoft is kinda immaterial, IMO. The given specs are not particularly competitive with a PS5, nor is it well positioned to even really play any of the AAA games that drive the majority of consumer spending in the console space. Right now, games like Fortnite, CoD, GTA Online, and similar won’t play at all due to (Linux) incompatibility with anti-cheat software.

What Valve is actually doing is pretty straight-forward: creating a PConsole that is equal to/an upgrade of what 70% of Steam users currently have. And technically 6x more powerful than the Steam Deck.

But they also have a chance to break into the coveted Azuriel market… if they stick the price landing.

See, I’ve talked about it before, but I have a very specific use-case that is not currently being addressed in the market: introducing my kiddo to Minecraft in the living room. We technically have a Switch, which technically can have Minecraft on it, but the reviews have said it sucks on a technical level. Sluggish, buggy, and local co-op is just about unplayable. Meanwhile, I have a perfect PC rig a few rooms down. Up to this point, I had been contemplating rearranging my computer room into a side-by-side setup and going from there, but there’s a lot to like about a potential all-in-one GabeCube solution. Not the least of which is how many hundreds of other games I could share with the little man.

…unless the Steam Machine costs like fucking $800 or something. That would be enormously dumb.

I have dabbled in the burgeoning handheld emulator space, and the ever-present elephant in the room was the Steam Deck. “Is this $250 handheld worth it… or should I just buy a Steam Deck for a few hundred more?” To be clear, there are a lot of reasons why you may not want a Steam Deck. For instance, it’s very large. If all you care about is N64 games, getting something that can (technically) run Cyberpunk 2077 is overkill. But what Valve (unintentionally?) did was create a universal, $400 anchor in the handheld space. And, yeah, the top-tier model retails for $650. However, imagine if the Steam Deck debuted at $650 for the lowest model. Would it have been as popular or been the reference point for this market? No.

So, we don’t know the price for the Steam Machine. We do know that it’s not going to be subsidized like consoles, and it’s going to be priced “like a PC” of similar specs. The reasoning is begrudgingly sound: it’s technically an open Linux PC. The PS3 was subsidized back in the day with the assumption Sony would make back the money in software sales, and yet the Air Force chained 1,760 of them together to build a supercomputer. Thus, outside of bulk discounts of materials, the Steam Machine is likely to cost roughly the same as off-the-shelf components. Which puts it high. Which puts it out of reach for my purposes.

The one positive that may result, regardless of price, is developer focus on their games being “Steam Machine compatible.” Which is somewhat silly to say, given that its already a PC. That said, we have seen an out-sized (compared with units sold) effort to make games playable on the Steam Deck. Part of that is pure marketing math – someone who already shelled out cash for a Steam Deck is likely focused on playing a bunch of games on it – and the other part is likely relief at having a discrete endpoint. A given PC owner could have any number of configurations, and nearly every permutation must be accounted for. Meanwhile, a Steam Machine is a Steam Machine. If it plays well on that, it probably plays well everywhere else. Although perhaps playing on a Steam Deck is good enough.

Which just might be the play, in my case, if the Steam Machine ends up double the price of the Deck.

Dumb Problems

I’m going to talk about a dumb blogging problem I experienced recently, so feel free to skip this one.

Like most problems in the world, it started with Tobold. I’ve been a persona non grata in his comment section for years now, but I’ve kept his blog on my Feedly for masochistic reasons. One of his latest posts was so unbelievably asinine though – “Trump isn’t doing any permanent damage!” – that I had had enough. That’s when I realized that I still had him linked over in the Blogroll section of my sidebar, so I figured I should take care of that too.

Big mistake.

Where’d it go, William?

Over the years, I have often heard people complain about WordPress, sometimes vehemently enough to drive them to self-host and even try and reinvent the Comment section wheel. While I had misgivings when WordPress changed to the “block” format many years ago, for the most part all the nonsense seemed to just happen to Other People. As it turns out, that’s because WordPress does indeed make inexplicable changes and then hides them in a sort of load-bearing Schrödinger’s box to surprise you with if you ever open it. “Looking to edit your Blogroll? Well, now it’s a Legacy Widget. Also, that widget doesn’t exist anymore! Enjoy the dead cat.”

Now, on the one hand, I can kind of see the logic. The original setup was clunky as fuck: you place a Blogroll widget in your sidebar, and then add entries to the “Link” section of your blog. The new setup is… add a list block to the sidebar with some hyperlinks. Technically, it’s a more elegant solution. Or would be, if they also added information on how to recreate the sort of red bar thing.

Guys, I was raging. It’s bad enough when you have a problem that you find difficult to articulate in a searchable way. But when the problem is caused by someone else laying a goddamn trap in your code… I get it now. The extra dumb thing was how I stumbled onto the solution. After several hours, I was finally giving up and willing to try and grab a JPG of the red bar and manually photo edit some text on it when I ended up right-clicking and Inspecting the bar, e.g. looking at the HTML code directly.

For future reference:

<h3 class="widget-title">
   <span>Blogroll</span>
</h3>

More specifically, you have to add the “Custom HTML” widget to the sidebar and then paste that in. Change the title in the Span section to match your needs, of course. I’m assuming that the H3 (header) design is keyed off of the overall Theme (I’m using Mystique) and color options of the blog.

Anyway, that was a lot more of my yesterday than strictly necessary. Also, the Blogroll itself is looking a bit sparse after trimming Tobold and several bloggers who no longer post. Honestly, I never even liked the static list in the first place – it’s just a poor substitute for the glory that was Blogspot’s dynamic blogroll. You know, the one that allowed you to link to 50+ blogs or whatever and display whichever ones posted most recently at the top? If there was ever a wheel that needed reinventing, it is that one.

Price Hike

You have likely heard the news already, but in the last few weeks Microsoft has increased the price of Game Pass, kind of significantly. The Ultimate tier went from $19.99 to $29.99, for example, which is a 50% increase. Even the PC tier where I’m at went from $11.99 to $16.49, which is a 38% increase. While Microsoft has tried spinning the “value added” from things like free battlepasses to a few F2P games, most everything is the same or worse.

I have a couple of things I wanted to say about this.

First, the amount of “I told you so!”s from people – including former FTC chair Lina Khan – who suggest the price increase is a result of the Activision Blizzard merger is kind of ridiculous. Yes, $55 billion is a lot of investment money that Microsoft expects a return on. However… do we imagine the Game Pass subscription was going to stay at the same level if the merger didn’t occur? Was Microsoft not going to lay off the same game devs as before? Subscriptions go up and to the right. It doesn’t take Nostradamus to predict that Netflix and Disney+ will have a(nother) price increase within the next two years, with or without any mergers.

Incidentally, the math on people canceling their subscriptions is interesting. Even if just under one-third of people cancelled their subscription… Microsoft would still break even. Hell, depending on the network traffic and other server costs, Microsoft probably comes out ahead even if half of everyone quits.

For the record, I’m not here to defend the price hikes or Microsoft in general. We are absolutely seeing an across-the-board decrease in Consumer Surplus as a result of this, and it behooves everyone to double-check their internal math to see if Game Pass still makes sense. If all you’re playing is Hollow Knight: Silksong for the month, well, you were better off just buying it outright. Even the “free” copy of Call of Duty is going to start costing you extra starting in month 3 versus 7+ now.

But let’s not pretend that where we’re at today wasn’t worth how we got here. Microsoft was going to Microsoft anyway. The fact that we got to enjoy a comparatively cheap way to play videogames for years and years was phenomenal. The party is over now? Oh no, back to… buying videogames again.

Compare that to what’s going to happen when the AI music inevitably stops.

Self-Correcting

I feel there are many elements about AI that will eventually be self-correcting… in a sort of apocalyptic, crash-and-burn kind of way. For example, the AI-summarized web doesn’t leave much economic oxygen for people to create content worth summarizing. Assuming, of course, that ad-based revenue streams continue to make sense at all as we cross into over 50% of all internet traffic being bots.

On an individual level, I am experiencing some interesting changes that may also be self-correcting.

I have mentioned it a few times, but I have had a problem with watching Youtube (Shorts). As in, I would pop on over to quickly decompress from some other activity, and then 2-3 hours later, awaken from my fugue, algorithmic state having not accomplished anything that I had set out to. It’s a problem.

…or, at least, it was. Because I am now beginning to encounter (presumed) AI-directed, curated, and/or created content. And it repulses me in an uncanny valley way. Takes me right out of whatever hypnosis I was under and immediately causes me to close the tab. Which, of course, is great for me.

I put “presumed” up there though, because sometimes I cannot really tell. For example, this video about “15 forgotten garden traditions” is probably AI generated – it features generic voiceover on top of stitched-together montage of others peoples’ (at least attributed) content. Much like the now-maligned em dash however, perhaps that style of video is now just guilty by association? Another video was on The Saver’s Paradox and my AI-dar went off immediately. Looking further into the channel and thinking about what it would require to prompt that level of video though, it seems like it’s legit.

Perhaps neither of those videos bothered you in the slightest. In which case, congratulations! You are absolutely set up for a future filled to the brim with… content. For me though, the magic is gone.

It may well be inevitable that the quality of AI generation is such that it become indistinguishable from human content. In which case, why would I be on Youtube at all, instead of in my own prompt?

Self-correcting! As it turns out, even black holes evaporate eventually.